Industries
With a deep understanding of local conditions, we tackle complex issues from multiple perspectives to deliver innovative solutions
Industries
Energy
Providing advice and forecasts in the area of energy sector investment
We provide expert advice on energy. Principal economics are experts in the field of energy economics with experience in developing and adopting economic models assessing energy issues in New Zealand.
Environment
Fundamental uncertainty in the future climate requires new ways of planning
We offer a comprehensive range of services to support our clients in navigating the complex landscape of climate change and environmental issues. Our team of experts are experienced in conducting literature reviews, policy assessments, and decision making under conditions of fundamental uncertainty
Health
Housing
Housing depends on a range of factors, including affordability, location of jobs and preferences
Our team at Principal Economics encompass a unique combination of knowledge, experience, and skills suited for solving spatial and urban development and housing issues.
Infrastructure
Robust economic frameworks and empirical methods, informed by evidence, shaped in collaboration with stakeholders.
We assist our clients in identifying the primary and secondary impacts of infrastructure investments.
Tourism
Valuing the direct and indirect benefits and costs of tourism
We have used different data sets alongside with our tourism modelling capabilities for evaluating the impact of a range of investments and policy initiatives in the tourism sector.
Regulatory Economics
Transport
Accessibility is the potential for interaction with locations dispersed over space
Our team currently lead some of the most important transport policy topics. This includes providing expert advice on transport equity, emission reduction policies and decision making under deep uncertainty.
Capabilities
Our innovative solutions are tailored carefully to the questions at hand
Capabilities
Economic impact analysis
Making decisions in uncertain times needs precise understanding of the costs and benefits. We can assist by identifying fiscal, economic and wellbeing benefits from your investment decision or policy intervention.
Economic research
Making decisions in uncertain times needs precise understanding of the costs and benefits. We can assist by identifying fiscal, economic and wellbeing benefits from your investment decision or policy intervention.
Market analysis
Making decisions in uncertain times needs precise understanding of the costs and benefits. We can assist by identifying fiscal, economic and social benefits from your investment decision or policy intervention.
Macroeconomic consulting
In the rapidly changing global economy, it is increasingly essential to have a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and conduct a robust analysis of the economic environment to make informed strategic decisions.
Cost benefit analysis
Making decisions in uncertain times needs precise understanding of the costs and benefits. We can assist by identifying fiscal, economic and wellbeing benefits from your investment decision or policy intervention.
Forecasting and modelling
Making decisions in uncertain times needs precise understanding of the costs and benefits. We can assist by identifying fiscal, economic and wellbeing benefits from your investment decision or policy intervention.
Spatial analysis and modelling
In the rapidly changing global economy, it is increasingly essential to have a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and conduct a robust analysis of the economic environment to make informed strategic decisions.
Business case approach
Our team have led business cases for a range of sensitive topics.
About Us
Our consultancy services are driven by the questions of clients, informed by robust evidence, shaped in collaboration with stakeholders, rooted in multi-deciplinary approaches and guided by principles of Economics. Our company is a Tier 2 AOG consultant.
About Us
Our purpose, mission and values
We exist to strengthen economic decision-making in complex systems. Grounded in economic theory and rigorous analytical practice, we apply advanced modelling and disciplined strategic reasoning to support institutions facing high-stakes choices. We integrate emerging analytical tools, including artificial intelligence, where they enhance clarity and evidence — not as substitutes for judgement, but as instruments of deeper economic insight.
Our Corporate Commitments
At Principal Economics, we are dedicated to making a positive impact on society and delivering value to our clients through our unwavering commitment to excellence and responsible business practices. As an economics consulting firm, we recognize the importance of addressing the pressing challenges of our time and striving for inclusive growth, community engagement, diversity and inclusion, ethics and integrity, health and safety, as well as sustainability.
How We Work
Exceptional People and Culture
At Principal Economics, our approach to work is driven by a commitment to excellence, collaboration, and client-centricity. We leverage our expertise, draw inspiration from industry-leading organisations, and continuously refine our practices to ensure we deliver exceptional results. Here's an overview of how we work:
Publications
Our reports offer inspiring and independent insights into various topical issues
Knowledge Hub
Here we provide frontier knowledge and data collected from our latest reports and analyses
Articles
Our articles challenge the status quo by reframing current issues, sparking fresh conversations and finding new solutions
Tools
Artificial Intelligence, Economic and Policy Toolkits
Publications
Knowledge Hub
Articles
Tools
Economic Impact of New Zealand's Second Emission Reduction Plan
CGE modelling of ERP2
This report uses CGE modelling to estimate GDP, employment and distributional impacts of the Emissions Reduction Plan 2 (ERP2), which delineates Aotearoa New Zealand's strategy to attain its emissions reduction objectives for the 2026-2030 period, alongside setting a path towards achieving long-term emissions reduction objectives.
Climate change adaptation and investment decision making
Aotearoa New Zealand suffers from an infrastructure deficit. Without the key infrastructure needed now for our economy to thrive, we deprive future generations from significant economic prosperity.
Review of Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments
The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) appointed Principal Economics to review the Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments HBAs). Our review included all councils’ HBAs, except for Rotorua and Wellington, which were not available at the time of this review.
Incorporating distributional impacts (equity) into the CBA framework
Transportation decisions can have large and varied impacts on travellers and their communities. It’s important to measure these effects and consider their impact on various groups when planning projects.
Business Development Capacity Assessment for Dunedin City
Dunedin City Council appointed Principal Economics to provide a comprehensive assessment of the sufficiency in development capacity of business land within Dunedin to fulfils requirements of the the National Policy Statement on Urban Development
See all Publications
Read inspiring publications that challenge conventional thinking by reframing current issues, igniting fresh conversations, and discovering innovative solutions.
Database of road transport elasticities
Emission reduction initiatives
We provide a comprehensive summary of potential policy areas suitable for emissions reduction. This inludes a review of policy areas including active transport, mobility as a service, ridesharing, telework, parking pricing, road user pricing, carbon taxes and more.
VKT Dashboard
This household and regional VKT dashboard showcases the power of using frontier data manipulation methods and granular IDI data
Drivers of House Price Growth
We provide an extensive review and test the factors of housing price growth in New Zealand. We assessed the level of agreement and certainty with the source of house price growth over the last fifty years.
See All Knowledge Hub
SURF
Shaping New Zealand’s Health Adaptation Strategy
Transport equity
See All Articles
Contact Us
Our team
Chief Executive Officer
Eilya is the CEO of Principal Economics with extensive executive and consultancy experience. Eilya is experienced in managing large teams of applied researchers and has led a wide range of high-profile infrastructure projects in New Zealand.
Chris Parker
Chris Parker is a leading applied economist and policy advisor with deep expertise in urban economics, infrastructure, and cost-benefit appraisal.
Our Team
Our team integrates economic theory, advanced modelling, and disciplined strategic reasoning to support consequential decisions. We operate across infrastructure, energy systems, climate transition, and regulatory economics.
AI – CIP
Toolkit Description
AI-CIP is an AI-enabled infrastructure cost modelling and fiscal risk system designed to improve the reliability of early-stage investment decisions. It integrates sector-specific escalation forecasts, probabilistic uncertainty modelling, and structured cost building blocks with AI-driven document analysis and risk calibration. The platform moves beyond static indices and fixed contingency rules by linking real economic drivers—labour markets, commodity volatility, insurance repricing, output gaps, and migration dynamics—directly to project cost structures.
CIP is built to support Programme, Indicative Business Case, and Detailed Business Case stages by separating capital expenditure, operating expenditure, maintenance, and consequential costs, and by generating cost distributions rather than single-point forecasts. It enables agencies to identify the drivers of cost risk, test affordability under alternative macroeconomic scenarios, and calibrate contingency in a transparent and evidence-based manner. The result is a system that strengthens financial cases, reduces the risk of cost underestimation, and supports portfolio-level fiscal resilience.
Technical Details
CIP combines econometric escalation models (PPI, LCI, commodity and insurance indices) with a configurable building-block cost engine and correlated Monte Carlo simulation. Projects are decomposed into weighted cost components linked to relevant indices and time-phased delivery schedules. AI modules within EconAI extract cost-relevant features from business cases and risk registers, flag missing consequential cost categories, and calibrate contingency using historical forecast-versus-actual variance data. The platform continuously updates market-condition indicators and generates central, P75, and P90 cost paths, accompanied by driver attribution diagnostics and executive-ready interpretation outputs. This report provides some technical information about forecasts.
Links
Use Case Examples
A transport agency is assessing a multi-stage corridor programme involving heavy civil construction, public transport services, and long-term maintenance commitments. Using CIP, the team uploads project documentation into EconAI, which identifies cost drivers, highlights potential consequential operating impacts, and recommends a cost-building structure. The platform applies sector-specific escalation and correlated uncertainty modelling to produce central and upper-bound whole-of-life cost projections. Decision-makers receive a clear breakdown of escalation drivers, a recommended stage-appropriate contingency range, and stress-tested affordability results under labour-tightness and commodity shock scenarios, strengthening confidence in the investment decision.
Contact Details
If you have any questions about this toolkit, please send an email to: