The Emissions Reduction Plan 2 (ERP2) delineates Aotearoa New Zealand’s strategy to attain its emissions reduction objectives for the 2026-2030 period, alongside setting a path towards achieving long-term emissions reduction objectives. ERP2 aims to reduce annual average emissions from 72.5 MtCO2e to 61 MtCO2e. The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) engaged Principal Economics Limited, the Centre of Policy Studies, and Infometrics Limited to evaluate the comprehensive impact of the proposed policies. This includes:

• Assessing the comprehensive economic repercussions of emissions mitigation policy packages within ERP2.

• Estimating and understanding of secondary or indirect consequences.

• Carrying out distributional analysis of these ramifications.

The critical policies investigated in our report include:

• Increasing renewable energy through Electrify NZ

• Targeting 10,000 public EV chargers

• Lowering agricultural emissions

• Investing in resource recovery

• Improving public transport

• Investigating carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

Cite this article

Torshizian E, Adams P, Stroombergen A. 2024. Economic Impact of New Zealand’s Second Emissions Reduction Plan. Report to Ministry for the Environment by Principal Economics Limited in collaboration with the Centre for Policy Studies and Infometrics Limited.

The Commerce Commission is in the process of the 2025 reset of the electricity default price-quality path in a time of uncertainty and high-inflation. The Commission tasked Principal Economics to provide a solution for dealing with supply chain and economic uncertainty for regulating $25 billion of assets of the electricity distribution businesses over the DPP4 (2025-2030) period. For that work, we used a combination of methods, including stakeholder engagement, CGE analysis (for the impact of climate policy on cost categories), econometric analysis and forecasting. The work included significant stakeholder engagement and inputs from the electricity distribution businesses from their submissions (to the Commission). The outputs are adopted in the Commission’s latest decision and are available here.

Transportation decisions can have large and varied impacts on travellers and their communities. It’s important to measure these effects and consider their impact on various groups when planning projects.

Waka Kotahi uses a framework to decide which transport projects and programmes to pursue. The economic business case must contain a cost–benefit analysis (CBA). CBAs assess the economics of a proposal by valuing (monetising) the costs and benefits to all members of society. However, CBAs sum across a wide range of people and don’t calculate inequities between groups or individuals, or who ultimately benefits from the project.

Transport equity discussions focus on social justice. Equity impact analysis helps policymakers to make good decisions for a wide range of people. Distributional impact analysis needs to be complemented with wider investment and planning considerations. This includes any comprehensive policy framework that accounts for the overlapping effects of transport, housing and taxing policies.

Cite this article

Torshizian, E., Byett, A., Isack, E., Fehling, A., & Maralani M. (2022). Incorporating distributional impacts in the cost–benefit appraisal framework (Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency research report 700).

Our report examines the expected costs and benefits of the reforms. Changes are currently articulated mainly as broad principles and high-level descriptions of the institutional arrangements. Much of the detail is still to be developed, and the benefits of the reforms will depend on the physical outcomes that result, eg how much will pollutant emissions reduce, housing affordability improve, or Māori engagement increase?

The report focuses on understanding the nature of costs and benefits under the different domains and how these are expected to change at the margin, eg whether increased environmental quality will yield positive net benefits. We provide an indication of the potential for benefits in different domains. The realisation of these potential benefits is dependent on the final design and implementation of the reforms.