Publications

Robust economic frameworks and empirical methods, informed by evidence
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Eilya Torshizian, Eugene Isack and Alina Fehling

Climate change adaptation and investment decision making

Avoid costly delays in decision-making. For deep uncertainty, plan ahead, start small, and keep monitoring. Climate is beginning to exacerbate extreme “one-in-100-year” events. Our knowledge of the likelihood of these large-impact events happening in shorter intervals is limited.

Eilya Torshizian

Ruyi Jia

Moving towards value-based local road valuation. Principal Economics Insight Article 2410.

This article identifies and evaluates possible methodologies for estimating the capital value of New Zealand’s local road network. Local councils and central government agencies could use the findings to address the current inconsistencies in valuation approaches and enable better-informed decision-making for local road investment, maintenance, and user charges. The outputs will improve our understanding of the socio-economic and financial costs of providing and using the New Zealand transport system. The article discusses that the commonly used accounting-based valuation methods underestimate…

Eilya Torshizian

Economic Impact of New Zealand’s Second Emission Reduction Plan

The Emissions Reduction Plan 2 (ERP2) delineates Aotearoa New Zealand's strategy to attain its emissions reduction objectives for the 2026-2030 period, alongside setting a path towards achieving long-term emissions reduction objectives. ERP2 aims to reduce annual average emissions from 72.5 MtCO2e to 61 MtCO2e. The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) engaged Principal Economics Limited, the Centre of Policy Studies, and Infometrics Limited to evaluate the comprehensive impact of the proposed policies. This includes: Assessing the comprehensive economic repercussions of emissions…
Offshore wind

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Affordable offshore wind will accelerate our clean electricity future

Offshore renewable energy is an option that is being considered as contributing to Aotearoa New Zealand’s goal of reach net-zero for long-lived gases by 2050. The government has set a target that 50 per cent of total energy consumption will come from renewable sources by 2035, with an aspirational target of 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2030 (MBIE, 2022). Beyond providing a more stable, constant, and predictable energy generation, offshore renewable energy has a high potential for contributing additional…

Eilya Torshizian, Paul Roberts, Eugene Isack, Ian Wallis, Anthony Byett, Milad Maralani, Todd Litman, Jarrod Darlington

Can New Zealanders reduce transport emissions?

Getting people in cities to switch their cars for public transport may not be enough for New Zealand to meet its emission-reduction targets. A combination of pricing and behavioural policies may be required to encourage mode shift. This will be associated with economic and social effects that vary across income groups and would need careful consideration. At the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, the world’s leaders agreed to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial…

Eilya Torshizian, Eugene Isack and Alina Fehling

Business Development Capacity Assessment for Dunedin City

Dunedin City Council appointed Principal Economics to provide a comprehensive assessment of the sufficiency in development capacity of business land within Dunedin to fulfils requirements of the the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD 2020), including an investigation of: the locational requirements of business including shape, size, access, reverse sensitivities, and other market factors; the external pressures businesses are facing (such as the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of coastal hazards); impacts on business activities from…

Review of Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments 2021

The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) appointed Principal Economics to review the Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments HBAs). Our review included all councils’ HBAs, except for Rotorua and Wellington, which were not available at the time of this review. The focus of our review was on the requirements of the National Policy Statement on Urban Development 2020 (NPS-UD 2020). The outcome of our review indicates the areas of improvement for the next round of HBAs both for the councils…
Resource Management act reform

Eilya Torshizian

Reforms to the resource management system

This report examines the expected costs and benefits of the reforms. Changes are currently articulated mainly as broad principles and high-level descriptions of the institutional arrangements. Much of the detail is still to be developed, and the benefits of the reforms will depend on the physical outcomes that result, eg how much will pollutant emissions reduce, housing affordability improve, or Māori engagement increase? It focuses on understanding the nature of costs and benefits under the different domains and how these…
Climate change adaptation and investment decision making

Climate change adaptation and investment decision making

Avoid costly delays in decision-making. For deep uncertainty, plan ahead, start small, and keep monitoring. Climate is beginning to exacerbate extreme “one-in-100-year” events. Our knowledge of the likelihood of these large-impact events happening in shorter intervals is limited. Adaptive Decision-Making can help to minimise the cost (from delays) to the economy through increasing flexibility at the planning phase. Our earlier work estimated the annual cost of delay to be equal to 18 per cent of the capital cost of projects.…
CBA transport equity

Eilya Torshizian, Anthony Byett, Eugene Isack, Alina Fehling, Milad Maralani

Incorporating distributional impacts (equity) into the CBA framework

  Transportation decisions can have large and varied impacts on travellers and their communities. It’s important to measure these effects and consider their impact on various groups when planning projects. Waka Kotahi uses a framework to decide which transport projects and programmes to pursue. The economic business case must contain a cost–benefit analysis (CBA). CBAs assess the economics of a proposal by valuing (monetising) the costs and benefits to all members of society. However, CBAs sum across a wide range…
Cost of delays in decisions

Eilya Torshizian and Milad Maralani of Principal Economics

Great decisions are timely: Benefits from more efficient infrastructure investment decision-making

  Aotearoa New Zealand suffers from an infrastructure deficit. Without the key infrastructure needed now for our economy to thrive, we deprive future generations from significant economic prosperity. While transformational infrastructure projects necessitate time to be developed into sound technical solutions to our needs, many New Zealand projects are further delayed by policy decision and financing constraints. In this novel application of the infrastructure Wider Economic Benefits approach, we quantify the cost to society of these further delays for the…