Climate Policy, Trade, and Growth—What Changes and Who Pays


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Dr Eilya Torshizian

We applied our economy–energy–emissions framework to a national emissions budget, showing how targets translate into sector outcomes, investment, prices, and equity—an approach useful for Canada's federal, provincial, and municipal decisions.

This summary highlights what a full emissions-budget analysis can deliver: credible forecasts of emissions by sector and technology, economy-wide impacts (GDP, jobs, prices), investment split between compliance and capacity, and the distributional effects across households and industries. The work was recently completed for a national programme and demonstrates the same modelling capability we bring to provincial data, policies, and market linkages with the United States:

  • Targets to levers: Links carbon prices, benchmarks, standards, and subsidies to sector and technology outcomes.

  • Physical + macro outputs: Reports both physical units (e.g., MWh, bbl/day) and macro indicators, with clear attribution.

  • Investment & capital stock: Tracks additions, retirements, and productive capacity—what changes, when, and at what cost.

  • Distributional lens: Shows incidence across household groups and trade-exposed industries.

  • Trade realism: Captures Canada–U.S. linkages (Midwest, Gulf Coast, Pacific Northwest) so results reflect real markets.

Our extensive modelling of the government policies provides a comprehensive database for various policy and investment assessments as well as the ESG planning. For further information refer to our latest article here.