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# Principal Economics New Zealand

Principal Economics provides consulting services on transport, housing and energy.

## Sitemaps

- [XML Sitemap](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/sitemap.xml): Contains all public & indexable URLs for this website.

## Posts

- [Transformative Change, Housing and Transport](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/transformative-change-housing-and-transport/) - What Makes Urban Regeneration Transformative? Rethinking Appraisal Beyond This forthcoming paper investigates the concept of “transformative change” in urban regeneration and the implications for how major place-based investments are appraised. While the term is widely used in policy discourse, there remains limited clarity on how transformational outcomes differ from marginal improvements, or how such effects
- [Affordable Housing Business Case](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/affordable-housing-business-case/) - Evaluating Affordable Housing Investment: Evidence, Options, and Economic Trade-offs This forthcoming report examines how affordable housing investment options can be evaluated using robust, policy-aligned economic frameworks. It focuses on the challenge faced by decision-makers in comparing alternative housing delivery and financing approaches where impacts extend beyond direct fiscal costs to include long-term wellbeing, productivity, and
- [The standardised super-peak hedge product](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/the-standardised-super-peak-hedge-product/) - Bringing Transparency and Liquidity to Aotearoa’s Electricity Hedge Market Principal Economics is delighted to release our new report for the Electricity Authority, evaluating market-making parameters for a standardised super‑peak hedge contract. This analysis supports regulatory design that promotes price transparency, market liquidity, and robust consumer outcomes. Key Findings Tiered Spread Cap Recommendation: We suggest a
- [Climate change adaptation and investment decision making](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/climate-change-adaptation-and-investment-decision-making/) - Avoid costly delays in decision-making. For deep uncertainty, plan ahead, start small, and keep monitoring. Climate is beginning to exacerbate extreme “one-in-100-year” events. Our knowledge of the likelihood of these large-impact events happening in shorter intervals is limited. Adaptive Decision-Making can help to minimise the cost (from delays) to the economy through increasing flexibility at
- [Alternative Transport Appraisal with a Focus on Land-use and Transport Integration](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/alternative-transport-appraisal-with-a-focus-on-land-use-and-transport-integration/) - Our peer-reviewed alternative transport appraisal methodology provides a frontier solution for integrating land-use and transport system, improve allocative efficiency and achieve climate targets.
- [VKT Dashboard](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/vkt-dashboard/) - This household and regional VKT dashboard showcases the power of using frontier data manipulation methods and granular IDI data.
- [Uneven Roads: Addressing the Inconsistencies in Local Road Valuation Across New Zealand](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/moving-towards-value-based-local-road-valuation/) - This article discusses the current inconsistencies in valuation approaches and suggests pursuing an economic approach to improve decision-making for local road investment.
- [The Government's second emission budget: Economic, environmental and social impacts](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/the-governments-second-emission-budget-economic-environmental-and-social-impacts/) - Budget decisions are inter-related with impacts across a wide range of industries and communities. Our recent report informed the final Second Emission Budget decision.
- [ESG planning with confidence using our extensive assessment of the government policies](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/esg-planning-using-evidence-base/) - What impact will the emission budget have on your company’s performance? How will it affect your supply chain, operational costs, and market opportunities? Are your ESG measures aligned with the broader economic and regulatory changes shaping New Zealand’s transition to a low-emission economy? Our latest report investigated the economic, environmental and social impacts of the
- [Chorus’s base capital and operating expenditure](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/choruss-base-capital-and-operating-expenditure/) - We provided advice on the cost escalation indices relevant to Chorus’s cost categories, including network Operating Expense (OPEX), IT Capital Expense (CAPEX), network electronics, greenfield expansion, poles CAPEX, network sustain, building and services, physical network, site lease and fibre lease. The outputs were used for Chorus's RPE1 submission. Our report was informed by the information
- [Reforms to the resource management system](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reforms-to-the-resource-management-system/) - Our report examines the expected costs and benefits of the reforms. Changes are currently articulated mainly as broad principles and high-level descriptions of the institutional arrangements. Much of the detail is still to be developed, and the benefits of the reforms will depend on the physical outcomes that result, eg how much will pollutant emissions
- [Economic Impact of New Zealand's Second Emission Reduction Plan](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/economic-impact-of-new-zealands-second-emission-reduction-plan/) - Budget decisions are inter-related with impacts across a wide range of industries and communities. Our recent report informed decision-making for the Second Emission Reduction Budget.
- [Regional Land Transport Demand Model: Technical notes for practitioners](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/regional-land-transport-demand-model-technical-notes-for-practitioners/) - This report provides a technical description of the Regional Land Transport Demand Model (RLTDM), which is a hybrid approach to forecasting transport demand across New Zealand regions. The model’s outputs include deterministic and stochastic forecasts of a wide range of economic and transport series. We re-coded the model in Stata and Mata.
- [The impact of carbon pricing on businesses and communities](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/carbon-pricing-and-new-zealand-industries/) - Carbon rates affect industries and communities differently. Our findings on effectiveness of carbon rates will have significant implications for future policies.
- [The Economic Impact of Accreditation](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/the-economic-impact-of-accreditation/) - Accreditation affects various industries and creates local and international opportunities. Our recent report identified the direct and economy-wide impacts of accreditation.
- [$25bn Assets of the Electricity Distribution Businesses](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/25bn-assets-of-the-electricity-distribution-businesses/) - The Commerce Commission used our cost escalation factors for their draft decision to regulate the electricity distribution businesses over the DPP4 (2025-2030) period. Our solution deals with supply chain and economic uncertainty for regulating $25 billion of assets of the sector.
- [Great decisions are timely: Benefits from more efficient infrastructure investment decision-making](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/great-decisions-are-timely-benefits-from-more-efficient-infrastructure-investment-decision-making/) - Aotearoa New Zealand suffers from an infrastructure deficit. Without the key infrastructure needed now for our economy to thrive, we deprive future generations from significant economic prosperity. While transformational infrastructure projects necessitate time to be developed into sound technical solutions to our needs, many New Zealand projects are further delayed by policy decision and financing
- [Emission Reduction Initiatives](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/) - As part of global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, most countries, including New Zealand, have ambitious climate emission reduction targets. In New Zealand, the Climate Change Response Act (2002) requires all greenhouse gases to reach net zero by 2050. The current report provides detail on the identified transport policy levers to reduce emissions. In
- [Drivers of House Price Growth](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/the-drivers-of-house-price-growth/) - Despite being one of the national priorities, there are still large gaps and no consensus from the literature on what drives house price growth and the interaction between major drivers that underpin house price growth. In our housing affordability knowledge hub, we provide: an independent review of the factors of house price growth (HPG) in
- [Review of Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/review-of-housing-and-business-development-capacity-assessments-2021/) - The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) appointed Principal Economics to review the Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments HBAs). Our review included all councils’ HBAs, except for Rotorua and Wellington, which were not available at the time of this review. The focus of our review was on the requirements of the National Policy Statement on
- [Incorporating distributional impacts (equity) into the CBA framework](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/incorporating-distributional-impacts-equity-into-the-cba-framework/) - Transportation decisions can have large and varied impacts on travellers and their communities. It’s important to measure these effects and consider their impact on various groups when planning projects. Waka Kotahi uses a framework to decide which transport projects and programmes to pursue. The economic business case must contain a cost–benefit analysis (CBA). CBAs assess
- [Business Development Capacity Assessment for Dunedin City](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/business-development-capacity-assessment-for-dunedin-city/) - Dunedin City Council appointed Principal Economics to provide a comprehensive assessment of the sufficiency in development capacity of business land within Dunedin to fulfils requirements of the the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD 2020), including an investigation of: the locational requirements of business including shape, size, access, reverse sensitivities, and other market factors;

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- [World-class, Client-driven Research and Strategy - Principal Economics Canada](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/en-ca/) - Principal Economics is a leading consultancy providing advice on various topics, including transport, infrastructure, climate, housing and energy.
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- [Commute trips reduction (CTR) programs.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/commute-trips-reduction-ctr-programs/)
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- [Land use development trip reduction planning](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/land-use-development-trip-reduction-planning/)
- [Transit Oriented Development and Urban Village Planning](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/transit-oriented-development-and-urban-village-planning/)
- [Reduced Public Transport fares](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/reduced-public-transport-fares/)
- [Car use restrictions](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/car-use-restrictions/)
- [Increased fuel and carbon tax for road vehicles](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/increased-fuel-and-carbon-tax-for-road-vehicles/)
- [Distance-based vehicle pricing](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/distance-based-vehicle-pricing/)
- [Congestion pricing](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/congestion-pricing/)
- [Road user pricing](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/road-user-pricing/)
- [Efficient Parking Pricing](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/efficient-parking-pricing/)
- [Taxi and ride-hailing](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/taxi-and-ride-hailing/)
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- [Mobility as a Service](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/emission-reduction-initiatives/mobility-as-a-service/)
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## Team Members

- [Chris Parker](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/chris-parker/)
- [Emily Hendy](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/emily-hendy/)
- [Leonard Hong](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/leonard-hong/)
- [Dr Eilya Torshizian](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/eilya-torshizian/)
- [Phil Donovan](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/phil-donovan/)
- [Eugene Isack](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/eugene_isack-2/) - Eugene is a Senior Economist at Principal Economics. Before joining Principal Economics Eugene was an Economist at New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). Before that, Eugene was an Economist at Property Economics.
- [Dr Milad Maralani](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/dr-milad-maralani/)
- [Ruyi Jia](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/ruyi-jia/)
- [Alina Fehling](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/team_members/alina-fehling/) - Alina is experienced in data analysis and is interested in welfare, inequality and trade topics.

## Reports

- [Sector-specific input price escalation forecasts for Electricity Distribution Businesses (EDBs). A report to the Commerce Commission.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/sector-specific-input-price-escalation-forecasts-for-electricity-distribution-businesses-edbs/) - The Commerce Commission is in the process of the 2025 reset of the electricity default price-quality path in a time of uncertainty and high-inflation. The Commission tasked Principal Economics to provide a solution for dealing with supply chain and economic uncertainty for regulating $25 billion of assets of the electricity distribution businesses over the DPP4
- [Effects of Carbon Pricing on CO2 Emissions across New Zealand industries. The Ministry for the Environment.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/effects-of-carbon-pricing-on-co2-emissions-across-new-zealand-industries/) - Under the Paris Agreement, to fulfil its international obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the New Zealand Government has identified carbon pricing as an important tool for achieving the targets set in the Emission Reduction Plan (Ministry for the Environment, 2021, 2022b). While various international studies have examined the effectiveness of carbon pricing, its impact
- [Economic and behavioural policy levers for reducing transport GHG emission. NZ Transport Agency report.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/principal-economics-2023-economic-and-behavioural-policy-levers-for-reducing-transport-ghg-emission-work-in-progress/) - Avoid costly delays in decision-making. For deep uncertainty, plan ahead, start small, and keep monitoring. Climate is beginning to exacerbate extreme “one-in-100-year” events. Our knowledge of the likelihood of these large-impact events happening in shorter intervals is limited. Adaptive Decision-Making can help to minimise the cost (from delays) to the economy through increasing flexibility at
- [Incorporating distributional impacts (equity) into the CBA framework. NZ Transport Agency research report.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/principal-economics-2023-economic-and-behavioural-policy-levers-for-reducing-transport-ghg-emission-work-in-progress-9/) - Transportation decisions can have large and varied impacts on travellers and their communities. It’s important to measure these effects and consider their impact on various groups when planning projects. Waka Kotahi uses a framework to decide which transport projects and programmes to pursue. The economic business case must contain a cost–benefit analysis (CBA). CBAs assess
- [Climate Change Adaptation and Investment Decision Making. NZ Transport Agency report.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/principal-economics-2023-economic-and-behavioural-policy-levers-for-reducing-transport-ghg-emission-work-in-progress-10/) - Avoid costly delays in decision-making. For deep uncertainty, plan ahead, start small, and keep monitoring. Climate is beginning to exacerbate extreme “one-in-100-year” events. Our knowledge of the likelihood of these large-impact events happening in shorter intervals is limited. Adaptive Decision-Making can help to minimise the cost (from delays) to the economy through increasing flexibility at
- [Great Decisions are Timely: Benefits from more efficient infrastructure investment decision-making. Infrastructure New Zealand report.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/great-decisions-are-timely-benefits-from-more-efficient-infrastructure-investment-decision-makinggreat-decisions-are-timely/) - Aotearoa New Zealand suffers from an infrastructure deficit. Without the key infrastructure needed now for our economy to thrive, we deprive future generations from significant economic prosperity. While transformational infrastructure projects necessitate time to be developed into sound technical solutions to our needs, many New Zealand projects are further delayed by policy decision and financing
- [Economic Impact of New Zealand's Second Emission Reduction Plan. Ministry for the Environment report.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/economic-impact-of-new-zealands-second-emission-reduction-plan/) - Budget decisions are inter-related with impacts across a wide range of industries and communities. Our recent report informed decision-making for the Second Emission Reduction Budget.
- [The Economic Impact of Accreditation. Report to International Accreditation New Zealand (IANZ).](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/the-economic-impact-of-accreditation/) - Accreditation affects various industries and creates local and international opportunities. Our recent report identified the direct and economy-wide impacts of accreditation.
- [Identification and quantification of strategic vulnerabilities of freight. NZ Transport Agency report.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/identification-and-quantification-of-strategic-vulnerabilities-of-freight/) - NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi commissioned Principal Economics to: Identify key vulnerabilities that could disrupt the national freight network, impact strategic supply chains, and incur significant costs to end users. Address current and potential mitigation activities to reduce or eliminate these vulnerabilities. Our analysis includes critical nodes like ports and linkages like roads, predicting the
- [Regional Land Transport Demand Model: Technical notes for practitioners. NZ Transport Agency report.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/regional-land-transport-demand-model-technical-notes-for-practitioners/) - This report provides a technical description of the Regional Land Transport Demand Model (RLTDM), which is a hybrid approach to forecasting transport demand across New Zealand regions. The model’s outputs include deterministic and stochastic forecasts of a wide range of economic and transport series. The model has been re-coded in Stata and Mata, which will
- [Electricity Distribution Price Escalation. A report to the Commerce Commission.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/electricity-distribution-price-escalation/) - The Commerce Commission (the Commission) approached Principal Economics Limited (PEL) to develop sector-specific forecasts for the escalation of input prices pertinent to electricity distribution businesses (EDBs). These forecasts will be used to inform the reset of the forthcoming default price-quality path (DPP) for EDBs and encompass the following key components: An evaluation of the adequacy
- [Economic and behavioural policy levers for reducing transport GHG emission](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/economic-and-behavioural-policy-levers-for-reducing-transport-ghg-emission/) - There are two general ways to reduce per capita vehicle emissions. The first is through clean vehicle strategies, which reduce per-kilometre emission rates by shifting vehicle fleets to more fuel efficient or alternative fuel vehicles. The second is travel demand management (TDM, also called mobility management or vehicle travel reduction) strategies, which reduce total vehicle
- [Reforms to the resource management system: An analysis of the potential impacts for Māori, the housing market and the natural environment](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/reforms-to-the-resource-management-system-an-analysis-of-the-potential-impacts-for-maori-the-housing-market-and-the-natural-environment/) - This report examines the expected costs and benefits of the reforms. Changes are currently articulated mainly as broad principles and high-level descriptions of the institutional arrangements. Much of the detail is still to be developed, and the benefits of the reforms will depend on the physical outcomes that result, eg how much will pollutant emissions
- [Great Decisions are Timely: Benefits from more efficient infrastructure investment decision-making](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/reports/principal-economics-2023-economic-and-behavioural-policy-levers-for-reducing-transport-ghg-emission-work-in-progress-8/) - Aotearoa New Zealand suffers from an infrastructure deficit. Without the key infrastructure needed now for our economy to thrive, we deprive future generations from significant economic prosperity. While transformational infrastructure projects necessitate time to be developed into sound technical solutions to our needs, many New Zealand projects are further delayed by policy decision and financing

## Publications

- [Moving towards value-based local road valuation. Principal Economics Insight Article 2410.](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/moving-towards-value-based-local-road-valuation-principal-economics-insight-article-2410/) - This article identifies and evaluates possible methodologies for estimating the capital value of New Zealand’s local road network. Local councils and central government agencies could use the findings to address the current inconsistencies in valuation approaches and enable better-informed decision-making for local road investment, maintenance, and user charges. The outputs will improve our understanding of
- [Economic Impact of New Zealand’s Second Emission Reduction Plan](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/economic-impact-of-new-zealands-second-emission-reduction-plan/) - The Emissions Reduction Plan 2 (ERP2) delineates Aotearoa New Zealand's strategy to attain its emissions reduction objectives for the 2026-2030 period, alongside setting a path towards achieving long-term emissions reduction objectives. ERP2 aims to reduce annual average emissions from 72.5 MtCO2e to 61 MtCO2e. The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) engaged Principal Economics Limited, the
- [Can New Zealanders reduce transport emissions?](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/reduce-transport-emissions-by-travelling-fewer-vehicle-kilometres/) - A combination of pricing and behavioural policies may be required to encourage mode shift and achieve the emission reduction plan's target of 20% VKT reduction.
- [Review of Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments 2021](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/review-of-housing-and-business-development-capacity-assessments-2021/) - The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) appointed Principal Economics to review the Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessments HBAs). Our review included all councils’ HBAs, except for Rotorua and Wellington, which were not available at the time of this review. The focus of our review was on the requirements of the National Policy Statement on
- [Affordable offshore wind will accelerate our clean electricity future](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/affordable-offshore-wind-will-accelerate-our-clean-electricity-future/) - Offshore renewable energy is an option that is being considered as contributing to Aotearoa New Zealand’s goal of reach net-zero for long-lived gases by 2050. The government has set a target that 50 per cent of total energy consumption will come from renewable sources by 2035, with an aspirational target of 100 per cent renewable
- [Business Development Capacity Assessment for Dunedin City](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/business-development-capacity-assessment-for-dunedin-city/) - Dunedin City Council appointed Principal Economics to provide a comprehensive assessment of the sufficiency in development capacity of business land within Dunedin to fulfils requirements of the the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD 2020), including an investigation of: the locational requirements of business including shape, size, access, reverse sensitivities, and other market factors;
- [Reforms to the resource management system](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/reforms-to-the-resource-management-system/) - This report examines the expected costs and benefits of the reforms. Changes are currently articulated mainly as broad principles and high-level descriptions of the institutional arrangements. Much of the detail is still to be developed, and the benefits of the reforms will depend on the physical outcomes that result, eg how much will pollutant emissions
- [Incorporating distributional impacts (equity) into the CBA framework](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/incorporating-distributional-impacts-equity-into-the-cba-framework/) - Transportation decisions can have large and varied impacts on travellers and their communities. It’s important to measure these effects and consider their impact on various groups when planning projects. Waka Kotahi uses a framework to decide which transport projects and programmes to pursue. The economic business case must contain a cost–benefit analysis (CBA). CBAs
- [Great decisions are timely: Benefits from more efficient infrastructure investment decision-making](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/benefit-from-more-efficient-infrastructure-decision-making/) - Aotearoa New Zealand suffers from an infrastructure deficit. Without the key infrastructure needed now for our economy to thrive, we deprive future generations from significant economic prosperity. While transformational infrastructure projects necessitate time to be developed into sound technical solutions to our needs, many New Zealand projects are further delayed by policy decision and
- [Climate change adaptation and investment decision making](https://principaleconomics.com/en-nz/publications/climate-change-adaptation-and-investment-decision-making/) - Avoid costly delays in decision-making. For deep uncertainty, plan ahead, start small, and keep monitoring. Climate is beginning to exacerbate extreme “one-in-100-year” events. Our knowledge of the likelihood of these large-impact events happening in shorter intervals is limited. Adaptive Decision-Making can help to minimise the cost (from delays) to the economy through increasing flexibility at

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