The Government’s second emission budget: Economic, environmental and social impacts


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Dr Eilya Torshizian

Our report provides advice on the Government's final decision about the second emission budget. In addition to a wide range of policies considered in our earlier (May) report, the current report further investigates the impact of:

  • alternative carbon pricing policies,

  • the Electrify NZ policy,

  • the EV charging network investment, and

  • the Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) and the Refrigerants Regulated Product Stewardship scheme assumptions.

Our high-level results suggest that:

  • the high carbon price of the Fourth Pathway scenario leads to larger adverse economic and equity impacts.

  • a decrease in GDP is associated with lower household consumption, lower real wages and lower exports (volume). As will be discussed, the short, medium and long-term dynamics of these effects are important for households (as well as the emission and economic outcomes).

  • the emission targets are achievable, but there is a significant adverse impact on economic and equity outcomes.

We sensitivity tested the results for seven different Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenarios.

Our extensive modelling of the government policies provides a comprehensive database for various policy and investment assessments as well as the ESG planning. For further information refer to our latest article here.